ACA subsidies ending: will your health insurance costs rise?

With ACA subsidies coming to an end, discover the reasons behind rising health insurance expenses, identify those hit hardest, and find out how to effectively compare your coverage options.

What changes for your plan once ACA subsidies end?

If you notice a sudden jump in your ACA Marketplace health insurance premium in 2026, you’re not just imagining things.

The temporary boost to Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits ended after 2025, altering the cost millions of people face for Marketplace plans.

This difference is important since your insurance premium might rise even if your coverage, insurer, or health needs stay the same.

The key question now is how much your expenses have shifted, the reasons behind those changes, and what actions you can take before picking your next plan.

What caused the rise in ACA health insurance costs?

The primary factor is the end of the enhanced premium tax credits.

These credits had boosted financial aid for eligible Marketplace buyers and lifted the previous 400% federal poverty level cap on premium tax credit qualification.

Starting in 2026, the Marketplace rules returned to their original form before the enhancements.

The ACA subsidies have not vanished entirely

This is a key concept to grasp.

The ACA premium tax credit itself remains in place. What ended was the temporary boost to that credit.

This means that two different households might see very different financial impacts.

Those who still qualify for the standard premium tax credit will continue to get some assistance, though less than what was available in 2025.

Those with incomes exceeding the renewed 400% FPL limit may no longer be eligible for any federal subsidy.

Your insurer’s premiums can increase simultaneously

The shift in subsidies is only one piece of the puzzle.

Insurers also determine their premiums based on anticipated healthcare expenses, service usage, prescription drug prices, and the makeup of their enrollee pool.

How Much More Could ACA Coverage Cost You?

There’s no single rate hike that applies to every enrollee.

Your premium is influenced by variables like your age, where you live, your household income, family size, and the plan you select.

This explains why two individuals in the same state might experience very different premium changes each month.

KFF’s nationwide study provides a clear overview of how significant these changes have been.

Higher-income Marketplace shoppers face a notably larger impact

The enhanced subsidies were particularly beneficial for those earning above the usual ACA subsidy limit.

During the temporary period, households could qualify for premium tax credits even if their income was above 400% of the FPL, as long as they met the other eligibility criteria.

That benefit was removed starting in 2026 under the current legislation.

For those just above the income cutoff, this change can cause a sudden jump in costs, as they may lose access to federal premium tax credits and have to cover the full Marketplace premium themselves.

This makes careful household income planning especially crucial for self-employed individuals, contractors, and those with fluctuating yearly earnings.

The premium isn’t the only expense to consider

Having a lower monthly premium doesn’t always translate to more affordable health coverage overall.

In 2026, KFF reported that the average deductible for Marketplace plans increased by about $1,000 per enrollee.

Meanwhile, more people opted for Bronze plans, which tend to have lower premiums but come with higher deductibles and greater out-of-pocket costs.

This means you need to look at at least four key figures when comparing plans:

Monthly premium
Annual deductible
Out-of-pocket maximum
Expected medical expenses

Who Is Most Likely to Feel the Impact?

The end of the enhanced credits doesn’t affect all Americans equally.

Those most impacted tend to be individuals who purchase their insurance directly from the ACA Marketplace, rather than those covered by employers, Medicare, or other government programs.

Self-employed workers and gig workers

Entrepreneurs, freelancers, independent contractors, and gig economy workers are especially important groups to keep an eye on.

Without employer contributions, the household is responsible for paying the full Marketplace premium themselves.

Fluctuating income can make it harder to calculate subsidy eligibility accurately.

Significant changes in your yearly income can affect how much premium tax credit you qualify for.

Because of this, it’s crucial to provide a precise income estimate when you apply for Marketplace subsidies.

Early retirees

Individuals who retire before qualifying for Medicare often depend on ACA Marketplace plans for coverage over several years.

For these retirees, a sharp rise in premiums can influence their savings withdrawals, how much they save, and even when they choose to retire.

Households that once planned their budgets around relatively low ACA premiums may now face significantly higher insurance costs to consider.

Families without employer-sponsored coverage

Families lacking access to affordable employer-based insurance can also experience these cost increases right away.

The financial strain grows even more significant when several family members require health coverage.

For these families, focusing only on the monthly premium might not give the full picture.

Costs like deductibles, copayments, coinsurance, and the provider network can significantly affect the total yearly expense.

What Changed with ACA Marketplace Enrollment in 2026?

The conclusion of the enhanced credits has also impacted enrollment in the Marketplace.

KFF revealed that enrollment in the Marketplace dropped in 2026, coinciding with the end of the enhanced tax credits.

Their analysis showed that the percentage of consumers choosing Bronze plans rose from 30% in 2025 to 40% in 2026, while those picking Silver plans decreased from 57% to 43%.

This change is important because Silver plans often provide extra benefits for consumers eligible for cost-sharing reductions.

These reductions help lower deductibles, copayments, coinsurance, and caps on out-of-pocket expenses.

What Should You Do If Your ACA Premium Increased?

If you saw a premium increase in 2026, don’t assume your only choices are paying more or dropping your coverage.

Begin by examining the full costs associated with your health plan.

Verify your eligibility for Marketplace subsidies

The first thing you should do is check if you still qualify for a premium tax credit under the 2026 guidelines.

Your eligibility will depend on factors like your household income, number of family members, and whether you have access to other qualifying coverage.

The KFF Marketplace calculator offers estimates based on your income, age, and household size, while HealthCare.gov also provides useful tools.

Think twice before picking a high-deductible plan

High-deductible plans might work well for those who rarely need medical care and have enough savings to cover a large unexpected expense.

However, these plans can pose risks for individuals with chronic illnesses, ongoing prescriptions, or scheduled medical treatments.

The rise in Bronze-plan sign-ups in 2026 indicates more consumers are opting for lower premiums, but this choice often means facing higher out-of-pocket costs.

Keep a close eye on your income estimate

This is especially crucial if you work for yourself.

Premium tax credits depend directly on your household income.

If your actual yearly income varies significantly from the estimate used to figure your advance credit, you’ll need to settle the difference when you file your federal taxes.

This means your Marketplace application serves as more than just an insurance form.

The financial aid you qualify for is directly influenced by the income estimate you provide.

What Might Happen to ACA Insurance Costs in 2027?

Affordability challenges could continue beyond the 2026 coverage year.

By August 2026, insurers have already submitted proposals for further premium hikes in 2027.

KFF’s most recent review of filings from 276 insurers nationwide, including all 50 states plus Washington, D.C. revealed a median proposed premium increase of 15% for 2027.

These rate proposals don’t guarantee that every individual will face a 15% hike.

August plays a key role in monitoring rate adjustments

August is critical because insurers submit their rate proposals while regulators review and evaluate these for the upcoming coverage year.

For consumers, the months before Open Enrollment are an ideal time to consider next year’s budget instead of waiting until the enrollment period ends.

The 2027 ACA Open Enrollment window will be especially crucial for families already feeling the strain from 2026 premium increases.

Will ACA Subsidies Make a Comeback?

The discussion around bringing back enhanced ACA subsidies continues, but until any laws are finalized, it’s unwise for consumers to rely on potential changes when planning their budgets.

In January 2026, the U.S. House approved a bill aimed at extending the enhanced premium tax credits for an additional three years.

The proposal passed with a vote of 230–196 and was then sent to the Senate for consideration.

However, as of August 2026, no changes have been made to restore the enhanced credits under current federal law.

This difference is essential for anyone looking to buy coverage.

Congress could still pass new legislation that changes the subsidy landscape, but until that happens, consumers need to plan based on current rules.

Author’s Opinion

Understanding the end of enhanced ACA subsidies is straightforward from a political or policy standpoint.

Yet for those footing the monthly premiums, the issue is far more immediate and practical.

This is fundamentally an issue of household budgeting.

The main concern is that people might pick the cheapest plan just to lower their premium, without considering deductibles or out-of-pocket limits.

This can lead to misleading savings until an unexpected health issue results in hefty expenses.

These three figures provide a much clearer picture of a plan’s real affordability than just the premium shown on the Marketplace homepage.

Since insurers are already suggesting another round of rate hikes for 2027, delaying your decision could make an already tough choice even more stressful.

Written by

Anthony Alexandre